There's no question that the things that changed recently won't be returning to their previous state and that's not necessarily a bad thing but it requires recognition and adjustment. Things that used to work won't work any longer, at least not the same way. Many of the changes in the way companies hire and retain employees are here to stay like, remote workers for example.
Sometimes the effect of one change affects other things downstream: Who are those small businesses located in major office centers going to sell goods and services to if nobody is in the buildings?
"Today San Francisco has what is perhaps the most deserted major downtown in America. On any given week, office buildings are at about 40 percent of their pre-pandemic occupancy, while the vacancy rate has jumped to 24 percent from 5 percent since 2019. Occupancy of the city’s offices is roughly 7 percentage points below that of those in the average major American city, according to Kastle, the building security firm."
This is happening everywhere but there still so many questions which require answers:
"Decisions like that, played out across thousands of remote and hybrid work arrangements, have forced office owners and the businesses that rely on them to figure out what’s next. This has made the San Francisco area something of a test case in the multibillion-dollar question of what the nation’s central business districts will look like when an increased amount of business is done at home."
Changes like these are fundamental and it takes a long time for the effects to work through the economy, time we don't have. Meanwhile we have the same people who brought us to this point still running the show. I remember when the Fed was telling us that inflation wasn't a thing, then it was transitory! Next inflation was peaking (lol) and leveling off and now they say "we're going to keep raising interest rates and crushing growth to defeat....inflation!"
I don't know what planet we're on anymore when arsonists are sworn in as fire-fighters and given the keys to the water pumps.
"This is the situation we are currently in today as 2022 comes to a close. The Fed is in the midst of a rather aggressive rate hike program in a “fight” against the stagflationary crisis that they created through years of fiat stimulus measures. The problem is that the higher interest rates are not bringing prices down, nor are they really slowing stock market speculation. Easy money has been too entrenched for far too long, which means a hard landing is the most likely scenario"
So much for the warm-n-fuzzy Christmas speech. I'm not in the mood.
As we head into next year there will be some headwinds but hey! We've got this! Small business owners are serial risk-takers and opportunists and I'm proud to be one of you. I plan to take on whatever comes standing shoulder-to-shoulder with all of you and providing the best access to capital possible. When the going get's tough and all that doesn't even cover it. It will take more than that but, God willing, we'll all be stronger for it.