Should I stay or should I go?

"Should I stay or should I go now?

If I go there will be trouble.

If I stay it will be double!"

Change is never easy so I tend to avoid making any changes in my life & business routines until I'm compelled to do so. I tend to find something that works and keep doing it until it stops working. What happens when the need for change is externally imposed? like, for example, the recent evacuation orders I received due the approaching hurricane Milton. There's barely enough time to begin with and then, suddenly, everything is put on hold. Preparation immediately takes priority over everything else and business suffers or, in some cases, closes down for good. The number of small businesses that have closed since the 2020 Covid madness and in subsequent storms is astonishing; those who are left have to deal with an incredibly uncertain and shifting landscape of economic and political dislocation. The temptation to leave the madness is "trouble". To stay and deal with madness is "double trouble"!

The fate of our entire economic system upon which we all depend to maintain our living standards is in the hands of highly unqualified people appointed to their positions by other highly unqualified people. Despite dismal results from their management, no one ever seems to pay a price for their failures. If the same mismanagement were to occur in any business it would quickly spell disaster yet, here we are printing our way to oblivion while the band plays on.

Pressure creates fissures that open up to allow excess energy to be released. In a similar manner, alternative systems organically pop up when the pressure in the existing machinery becomes overwhelming. In just the last 10 years we have witnessed parallel systems develop in trade (Crypto/BTC) in information (alternative media) and in geopolitics (BRICS).

Information monopolies have been discredited so badly that just one podcast on the Joe Rogan show has more viewers that all the prime-time newscasts combined!

Owners can no longer rely on legacy media facts and figures because, if they do, it will negatively affect their decision making process. Where can we turn when he gatekeepers of whole financial system seem to hell-bent on destroying it? They lie about everything: Inflation, Jobs, GDP, Bank integrity. Everyone is starting to feel the disparity between talking head happy speak and reality though.

"I explained that GDP, especially in Western economies, is now merely a measure of government spending growth rather than true economic growth. In a world with seemingly no limit to deficit spending, central banks help monetize government debt. This results in nominal GDP growth, which is misleadingly presented as real economic growth thanks to understated inflation figures. But the lived reality for the population—growing poorer—tells a very different story, just take a look at the chart below"

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This is stealth theft with a healthy dose of plausible deniability.

Here is a perfect example of what I'm talking about. Read how the Treasury Department frames it's announcement that they had a $1.8 Trillion deficit for 2024:

"Under the leadership of President Biden and Vice President Harris, our economy has created over 16 million jobs, unemployment remains the lowest on average of any Administration in 50 years, and workers’ income have increased by nearly $4,000, after adjusting for inflation. As a result of this leadership, we’ve achieved a recovery few thought possible with inflation back down close to pre-pandemic levels and the economy remaining strong. But there’s more to do to lower costs and create opportunities for hardworking Americans." (I just threw up a little in my mouth)

‍Here are the actual numbers they reported:

"Governmental receipts totaled $4.9 trillion in FY 2024 (17.1 percent of GDP)

Outlays were $6.8 trillion in FY 2024 (23.7 percent of GDP)"

So, what does this mean for business owners?

“Small business owners are feeling more uncertain than ever,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Uncertainty makes owners hesitant to invest in capital spending and inventory, especially as inflation and financing costs continue to put pressure on their bottom lines. Although some hope lies ahead in the holiday sales season, many Main Street owners are left questioning whether future business conditions will improve.”

Key findings include:

• The net percent of owners reporting inventory gains fell four points to a net negative 13% (seasonally adjusted), the lowest reading since June 2020.
• The average rate paid on short maturity loans was 10.1%, up 0.6 of a point from August. The last time it was this high was February 2001.
• Thirty-four percent (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, down six points from August and the lowest reading since January 2021.
• A net 12% of owners reported paying a higher rate on their most recent loan, down three points from August and the lowest reading since March 2022.
• Fifty-one percent reported capital outlays in the last six months, down five points from August. The last time it was this low was July 2022.
• Seasonally adjusted, a net 32% reported raising compensation, down one point from August and remaining the lowest reading since April 2021.
• Twenty-three percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business (higher input and labor costs), down one point from August but remaining the top issue.

The holiday's are usually worth waiting for in most businesses but this year the presidential election stands in the way of any positive expectations. Unless holiday spending surprises us this year many retail businesses won't show a profit. All of the reliable metrics that monitor business climate have been rolling over since March and they are crashing into the holiday season with record low savings and record high credit card debt. The hysteric attempts by government data agencies to "extend and pretend" until after the election will only serve to make what would otherwise have been a hard landing into a full-on crash and burn. Then we'll all have to deal with IOU's.

Right now, commercial lending is operating normally without any major disruptions. SBA is funding commercial term loans with monthly payments and 10-year terms for qualified companies whose ownership has robust credit (650+ fico scores are required for all owners above 20%).

For owners who already have an MCA balance, SBA is funding unsecured term loans in 2-3 weeks. It is a great way to refinance high cost capital with lower cost money.

The SBA is offering personal loans even for non-business owners to help with disaster relief for anyone hurt by the recent storms Helene and Milton.

Call me for more information about that or any other funding needs you have.

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Cheers!!