One thing I do expect to happen is the blatant manipulation of the actual inflation numbers to stop; not because the government will suddenly decide to start telling us the truth about the real situation but mostly to harm the new incoming administration. Most folks already know that 2.6% isn't even close to the actual inflation rate but, when it gets worse, they will blame whoever is in power at that time, namely Trump barring any unforeseen events prior to January 20.
"How long can this charade continue? At what point will the American people realize that their wealth, their future, and their nation have been sacrificed on the altar of failed-empire? When will those unelected powerbrokers steering the sinking ship, finally be held accountable? Or do we wait until the dollar dies, the Ponzi collapses, and the world moves on without Pax Americana?"
"Just a weekly reminder: the U.S. national debt stands at a staggering $36 trillion, but let’s not kid ourselves, the real number is north of $200 trillion when you factor in unfunded liabilities like Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. This isn’t just a fiscal crisis; it’s the largest Ponzi scheme in human history, propped up by the printing press of fiat currency and sold to the public as "freedom." Freedom? For whom?"
Business owners haven't faced such insurmountable problems since the mid-70's so most of the ones who were around and can remember what it was like are either dead or retired. I was in high school then so I only remember how much it cost for a "nickel bag" LOL!
This time however is different though but not in a good way. We're already seeing plenty of signs that demand is in crisis and all merchants are feeling it:
"BREAKING: 20% of US small businesses have seen sales drop over the last 3 months, the most since the 2020 pandemic. This is a worse reading than during the 2001 and 1991 recessions, according to NFIB data. This is also the 29th consecutive month of declining sales, the longest streak since the 2008 Financial Crisis. At the same time, the small business uncertainty index spiked to 110 points, the highest level on record. Small businesses cite inflation and the labor market as their biggest issues.
US small businesses are in a recession."
Trump's new Treasury secretary will have his hands full on day one. His task is a daunting one notwithstanding any political headwinds of which I expect there to be plenty. All of the banks have massive un-realized losses which can only be fixed by taking interest rates to zero again - that won't happen.
The treasury is having a hard tome selling their bonds which are critically needed to fund the government even at nearly 5%, how will they sell them at zero%??
"yesterday’s auction of 20y Treasury bonds served as a warning to the incoming administration. The auction drew very weak demand, even though 20y yields have risen from 4% in mid-September to around 4.65% currently. Although the 20 year is admittedly a bit of an odd point on the US curve, it does suggest that investors are reluctant to buy Treasuries even at these yields as long as there are concerns about potential impact of Trump’s plans on the deficit."
I write these things to you my dear friends because I genuinely care about the well being of my merchant clients and non-clients. I run the risk of being called a "doomer-boomer" or "buzz kill" to those of my friends who watch the S&P or Bitcoin rip to new highs daily but those are lagging indicators. The dangers I am talking about are real and imminent. Anyone waiting to see a market crash to be convinced has already missed the boat. Just saying.
Merchants who want to protect themselves have few choices since most of what will happen soon will be improvised and re-active rather than pro-active.
Running any business is a full-time job and there's precious little time to consider "big-picture" economic issues. Considering how close the world is to Nuclear confrontation, many of these matters seem pale by comparison anyway.
I wish all of you a healthy and happy Thanksgiving holiday. Hopefully you can spend it with family and friends regardless of who they voted for, there may not be another chance.
