I have become accustomed to the goofy data by now but this time the BLS really screwed the pooch: The report which was due at 10:00am sharp was delayed for 30 minutes. That never happens. While all market participants were watching and waiting with their fingers poised, floating over their keyboards ready to run trades based on the new job numbers, nothing. Zip. Zilch!
Then, after a few minutes of waiting, instead of publishing the report, the BLS posted a phone number to call which of course wasn't answered and prompted all callers to voice mail. But wait! Some market players actually got through and, whoever answered the phone at the BLS...get this: GAVE THEM THE REPORT! The numbers were made available to the public at 10:23am.
That is, some persistent callers from trading desks were given non-public, exclusive job numbers BEFORE they were reported officially giving anyone lucky enough to get through a very decisive trading advantage - read that again.
I just, I just can't anymore. It hurts my brain when I consider that level of incompetence.
"They are playing us. Almost everything in our news cycle is questionable. The lines between fact and fiction have become blurred. What our leaders and mainstream media peddle as the truth is often misinformation… and what is really the truth is smeared as misinformation. Furthermore, attention spans have narrowed so significantly that even when the truth is hard to cover up, the populace can be distracted with a barrage of information unrelated to the problematic topic." - Chris Macintosh
This recent example of glaring incompetence by government official score-keepers just proves what most of us already know: It's impossible to make plans based on government agency data. Most disturbingly, many business owners are left in the dark about critical truths that are actually happening now in our economy leaving them unprepared and ill-advised.
Unfortunately, in an election year as politically charged as this one, I seriously doubt there will be any attempt to do better. They will say "everything's fine!" even as we careen off the cliff into the abyss.
In actual lending news stress is showing up big-time across the board. Although I expect interest rates to fall, that won't help businesses stabilize because costs are rising so fast. Have you been to the store lately? Some of the increases are astonishing; in business both high costs and scarcity in supplies is putting pressure on profit's and reduced demand is a double-whammy.
This is clear to me at least: It is NOT "corporate greed" or "price gouging" to blame for this problem but instead uncontrolled money-printing by the Federal Reserve. Full stop.
Even the "value' plays like quick-service restaurants (QSR) are getting whacked.
"The NY Post spoke with a franchisee operator who owns twenty stores. The individual said, "Same-store sales are down 5% to 10% in recent weeks compared to the prior year." The individual blames the downturn in the chain's promotions, and foot traffic has plunged.
"They are doing crazy coupons," the franchisee owner said, adding, "Our gross sales are not even at 2012 levels, and profit then was five times what it is today."
All of this is happening while the Federal Reserve declared "victory over inflation' - yes, really.
Here is a picture of how many German Deutz marks it took to purchase one ounce of gold in 1919-1923. Notice that in less than just 4 years the currency was toast. We are all in 1919, right now.
For now, rates are stable to lower - MCA factors are 1.21-1.49 and SBA interest is Prime+ 2.5% (not including fees).
I'm in all week, call or message me if you need a quote. Funding for MCA is 24-48 hours and for SBA 2-3 weeks.