Ok so, who had a melting economy from "Bidenomics", a White House coup, an assassination attempt on Trump and two potential WWll scenario's on their Bingo card?
Now in August of 2024, as we careen headlong into an incredibly uncertain election which I expect will end in chaos regardless of who wins (or loses), we face critical decisions that could result in direct conflict with Nuclear armed Russia and with no one at the helm. Most of the problems we face as a nation have been long in the making and won't be solved quickly or without sacrifices. The question is, who does the solving and who makes the sacrifices?
Small businesses have born the brunt of the last 4-years and it shows. In my daily discussions with business owners the consensus is consistently lower across the board for revenues, foot traffic, hiring's and earnings. Even big box stores, who were given special treatment during the worst of the covid madness are rolling over:
"During the quarter, higher interest rates and greater macro-economic uncertainty pressured consumer demand more broadly, resulting in weaker spend across home improvement projects," Home Depot CEO Ted Decker wrote in a statement.
The focus is on Home Depot's full-year outlook. It now expects comparable sales to decrease by 3% to 4% compared to the previous forecast of -1%. This is far worse than the average Wall Street estimate tracked by Bloomberg of -1.65%. It lowered earnings per share for the year to -2% to -4%, down from +1%."
Another consistently bad indicator of underlying economic rot is the delinquency & default rates of CMBS:
"BREAKING: The delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices spiked to 8.1% in July, the highest in 11 years. The delinquency rate of office CMBS loans has QUADRUPLED in 1.5 years. Delinquencies are currently rising at a faster pace than during the 2008 Financial Crisis. A top AAA-rated CMBS experienced a $40 million loss in May for the first time since the 2008 Financial Crisis. Commercial real estate bankruptcies are coming."
There are plenty of signs elsewhere in the economy also despite what most media outlets are claiming.
"A weaker-than-expected jobs report last week has fueled concerns about an imminent recession and calls for an immediate, even an emergency, interest rate cut from the Fed. Employers hired 114,000 workers last month, falling well short of expectations of 185,000 new jobs, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data showed.
The unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%, the highest level since October 2021."
Most debt metrics show increased default and delinquency rates which tells a story of consumer stress. Not student loans though, those show a dramatic drop since those obligations were illegally and immorally transferred from the borrowers to us, the taxpayers. Nice work if you can get it.
It's good to be back even though I don't have much good news for y'all. I have been approving and funding SBA term loans a lot recently which is one way small business owners can access affordable working capital. These loans have monthly payments and 10-year terms so they don't destroy cash flow like the short term, weekly payment MCA's
Rates have remained stable and I'm making offers every day, please call if you have a need or just to chat, argue, disagree or bitch about any of the above. - I welcome and encourage dissent!!