There's a huge difference between the reality most of us see in our daily lives and that which is presented to us by "experts" and media talking heads. Even last Friday's butt-ugly CPI print of 8.6% which triggered a bloodbath sell-off on Wall Street is way higher in reality. The inflation rate today stands at 16.8% if we use the same exact method of calculating the CPI that was used in 1980: (which actually looks more like what I'm seeing in the market right now too)
• I N F L A T I O N - FLASH (June 10): May 2022 Annual CPI Inflation of 8.6%, and Annual ShadowStats Alternate “Corrected” CPI Inflation of 16.8% jumped to respective new 41- and 75-year historic highs, on top of rebounding gasoline prices.
So now we get the blame-game even though the very same "analysts" were the ones waving the "transitory" or "inflation shows our economy is healthy" BS in our faces. Now that it's abundantly clear that "Peak Inflation" is just another lie let's look at whats actually happening, shall we?
First off, rates are already headed higher and the Fed is actually now expected to ratchet them up even more:
"Fed funds futures traders now see a 21% chance of a 75-basis-point hike in June, up from just 3.6% on Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Beneath the issue of where the Fed goes from here is a much more fundamental and serious problem: Some observers fear the U.S. central bank has already effectively lost control of inflation."
That's the bad news, the WORSE news is that even if the Fed jumps another 0.75 percent that is still woefully inadequate to fight the current rate of inflation much less future inflation!- it's like the Fed is trying to corral a wild horse while riding a moped.
I'm already seeing increased distress from many industries I work with. Restaurants in particular are dealing with supply issues, gas prices have decimated foot traffic in many areas and higher costs are limiting spending on all but the most basic needs.
Again I stress the importance of fixed rate borrowing for immediate capital needs, for now rates have remained stable since private commercial lenders were already higher cost sources of capital. As risk increases however so do rates since our industry funds businesses without collateral; it's only a matter of time before we see higher rates in my opinion.
Right now, I can still offer competitive rates and large funding amounts. I can even lock-in rates before you even need to draw the approved capital down - yes really!